Friday, December 01, 2006

Recent Momentum is Fading

The market showed incredible resilience again yesterday. It fluctuated through the day, but the S&P 500 index ended with a 1 point gain. This was despite the fact that there was a fair amount of bearish news.
Nevertheless, the S&P is now unchanged for the week. This could be the second straight flat week. The recent momentum is fading.
There isn't much news this morning. The ISM survey of national manufacturing conditions due at 10:00 ET could be the biggest event. The similar Chicago regional survey was weak, and the stock market sold off. If the ISM index, which was 51.2 in October, drops below 50 for November, a similar reaction is likely.
The Wall Street Journal is reporting that
Kirk Kerkorian sold his entire stake in GM. GM's stock will take a hit. Oil is down $0.65 to $62.50 a barrel.
There will be a number of Fed officials speaking this afternoon and this evening. The tough talk on inflation is likely to continue.
The market is holding up surprisingly well. Seasonal strength may be helping. But the momentum is fading and there are widespread expectations of a
correction in January. We remain cautious short-term.

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