Thursday, November 16, 2006

Stock Futures Up on Good Inflation News

The inflation news this morning is outstanding. Stock futures are up sharply as a result.
The November core CPI was up just 0.1%. This was less than the expected 0.2%. The news is even better considering that the owners' equivalent rent component was up 0.4%. This is an imputed cost and is a full 23.4% of total CPI and 30.2% of the core CPI. Excluding this component to determine the price change of goods actually purchased, the core rate was flat.
The total CPI was down 0.5% due to a 7.0% drop in energy (mostly gasoline) prices. The year-over-year gain in CPI is now just 1.3%. The year-over-year increase in the core CPI dropped to 2.7% from 2.9%. That is still higher than the Fed would like, but it will drop further in the months ahead if current price trends continue.

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